Living In Tucson Blog

Hi Friends,

I’ll be taking a break from mortgages and Tucson for a couple of weeks. My family and I are headed to Argentina and Uruguay for a couple of weeks while we are visiting our son and extended family in Buenos Aires. It seems hard for originators to go on vacation! We always have our borrowers relying on our expertise and guidance. I have a great team covering for me locally and in our loan processing center in Mt. Laurel, NJ.

Timing can be so very tricky. For example, as I write this blog, interest rates are at a fifty year low low according to the Freddie Mac weekly survey. The Wall Street Journal pointed out that demand has been relatively flat because  many homeowners were able to take advantage of low rates in 2009. Here in Tucson, a third of the houses are under water! Less than 40% of borrowers are able to qualify for a refinance and many don’t feel the closing costs are worth the potential savings. It’s not easy to get a mortgage these days and refinances can often become even more challenging.

It is also more challenging to become a mortgage originator. Did you know that over 30% of originators fail the exam for their licenses? I am proud to let you know that I passed all of my requirements with flying colors! The number of loan originators in Arizona has been drastically reduced. You can count on me to be there for your mortgage needs, now and down the road!

I’ll be back on July 13th! I can be reached at david@davidwolsky.com and 520-275-2536.

The Fed ended their program of buying MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities – Fannie Mae Bonds) and it is already affecting the market. We have already seen upward pressure on interest rates. Additionally, we are seeing an overall improvement in jobs and housing. The S & P/Case-Schiller Home Price Index has been rising for eight consecutive months and Pending Home Sales rose by 8.2%!

The $8000 tax credit for first time buyers has been a decent stimulus, but the $6500 credit for homeowners buying a new primary residence has fallen short of expectations.

Here are articles of interest regarding bonds and real estate:

Real Estate Outlook: Positive Track

Bonds in the “danger zone”

Contact me, David Wolsky,  if you have any mortgage related questions. I can be reached at 520-529-7515 or email david@davidwolsky.com. Your comments are welcome.

I took the opportunity to record this video blog outdoors this afternoon so please pardon the wind noise. It was another sunny day in Tucson! The message is “Time is running out!”. The home buying conditions are perfect and the affordability index is at levels not seen in decades. Remember:

1. Rates will not stay lower indefinetly

2. The homebuyer’s tax credits will run out in 5 weeks!

3. Home prices will go up eventually

Rates have  been staying low since spring of 2009 thanks primarily to the intervention by the Federal Reserve. Rate predictions are as simple as weather predictions in my home town, Chicago. It does seem reasonable to suggest that rates will go up when the Feds wrap up their program of purchasing MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) on March 31st. If you would like a rate quote for your next mortgage, contact David Wolsky at 520-529-7515 or david@davidwolsky.com.

Here’s an excerpt of an article on March 11th from BankRate.com. Keep in mind that rate surveys are reflecting the rates of the previous week and there are ebbs and flows to the market causing rate fluctuations.

Rates Fall to Lowest Point of this Young Year

The Fed is in the final three weeks of a mortgage-buying initiative that began more than a year ago. In all, the Fed plans to buy $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities. The central bank is down to the last $30 billion or so of these purchases. Afterward, it will be up to investors to buy mortgages and keep home loans available. 

For a while, the consensus among bankers and economists was this: Mortgage rates would rise roughly half a percentage point after the Fed’s withdrawal. That consensus of an expectation of higher rates has transformed into uncertainty.

“Are we going to see a half-point blip? I don’t know. Maybe. Possibly. Probably. I don’t know,” says Dick Lepre, senior loan consultant for Residential Pacific Mortgage. If the Fed’s withdrawal means that rates are going to rise, why haven’t rates gone up already?

Even members of the Fed are asking that question, which implies that they are uncertain about the direction of mortgage rates, too. Brian Sack, executive vice president of the New York Fed, said in a speech Monday that the central bank has been tapering its purchases of mortgage-backed securities. “However, even as the pace of our purchases has slowed, longer-term interest rates have remained low,” Sack said, and the gap between mortgage rates and Treasury yields has remained narrow.

Click here to read the full article: http://www.bankrate.com/finance/mortgages/rates-fall-again-to-new-low.aspx

 Monday, June 8, 2009 was another brutal day for the bond market. Bonds have been selling and yields have been climbing since May 21^st. We have seen 30 year fixed rate mortgages go up about .75% in rate from 4.75% to 5.5%! There are many reasons, opinions and theories explaining the sudden rise in mortgage rates. Here is some “expert” analysis:

According to Robert Lenzner for Forbes, The bear market ended March 9^th and the end of the worst recession since the 1930s or the mid 1970s is plainly in sight. The yield curve – the difference between short-term and long-term securities – usually widens in advance of an economic recovery, and it has done so. Housing, the genesis of the crisis, is showing signs of improvement and even amelioration. Pending sales were up 6.7% in April, even if prices are still in the tank.

“There are two legs to that story, both of them bad. As yields on the 10-year go higher, the more attractive that investment would be to equity investors, so there is an asset allocation argument to be made,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co. “And, the Fed would like to keep yields lower, or at a favorable rate to help the recovery,” said Hogan.

“Rising interest rates will probably begin putting modest valuation pressure on the equity market as the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moves above 4%,” wrote Fred Dickson, chief market strategist, Davidson Companies, in a research note.

“Mortgage rates are heading higher as measured by Bankrate’s 30 year mortgage which rose to 5.45%. Rates are up 45 basis points in the last two weeks as Treasury rates have spiked higher. The recent rise in mortgage rates will probably dampen home sales and will certainly threaten stability in the consumer and household sector,” said Dan Greenhaus, an analyst at Miller Tabak Equity Strategy Group.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, on June 3^rd, “In recent weeks, yields on longer-term Treasury securities and fixed-rate mortgages have risen,” he told Congress. “These increases appear to reflect concerns about large federal deficits but also other causes, including greater optimism about the economic outlook, a reversal of flight-to-quality flows, and technical factors related to the hedging of mortgage holdings.” 

 Here is this week’s forecast from the Mortgage Success Systems, LLC:

 “Bonds have traded lower recently, causing home loan rates to move higher. The reasons are many, but certainly due in part to all the extra Bond supply in the market. The Treasury has to have some way to pay for all the massive government stimulus plans, so Treasury auctions have been increasing dramatically – but the added supply is driving prices lower, with home loan rates moving higher. I will be watching closely to see if this trend continues.”

My observations… The bond market is way oversold and we should see a reversal soon as all of the impact from mortgage refinancing works its way through the system. There is a tremendous supply which is not keeping up with demand. Once all of the excess paper from the refinance boom is bought, the appetite for more supply will be there and yields will lower although more prognostications do not have rates as low as we have seen in recent months. Higher mortgage rates have had their impact on new mortgage applications. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, refinance applications have dropped 24.1% to its lowest level since February 6. Purchase applications rose 4.3%. It appears that buyers are sensing prices leveling off and rates starting to climb. First time buyers want to take advantage of the $8000 tax credit before it runs out on November 30. The economy is showing signs of improvement. The stock market is up 37% since March! If you are interested in applying for a mortgage, call me, David Wolsky at 520-977-3300 during regular business hours. I have been origination mortgage since 1994 in Tucson, AZ.

For more infomation on the subject of T-Bills, read The Bond War – Why Paul Krugman and Niall Ferguson are hammering each other about T-Bill interest rates written by Daniel Gross and posted on www.slate.com. Article URL: http://www.slate.com/id/2219769/

Bonds took another beating today as investors shunned safe haven instruments in exchange for riskier investments. Mortgage Bonds did trade briefly higher at the open but fell off a cliff after news from China that manufacturing in that country was at a 3 month high signaling that the global recession may be coming to an end.

In the past week we have seen the average mortgage rate jump a half point higher! 5.25% is certainly a great low rate, but 4.75% was available only a few days ago. Bond yields are surging because the economy is showing signs of improvement such as the June 1st report showing manufacturing shrank as at a slower pace and construction spending rose. Let’s hold off on the champagne for now because manufacturing shrank, but not as much as expected. Another reason that bond traders are getting jittery is because of the fear of inflation. Bonds have fixed rates and their value erodes with inflation. Conversely to stocks, bond yields increase whenever bonds are sold and yields lower when bought. According to Nobel Prize winning economist, Paul Krugman in his May 28th column The Big Inflation Scare, the threat of inflation is unfounded in the current economic environment. Krugman points out the lack of inflation right now. Prices are down from a year ago and deflation has more potential than inflation (as I write this blog on June 1st, 2009). Krugman also indicates that even though the Fed is printing money and buying debt, there still isn’t a precedent for inflation as banks have been repaying the Fed. Plus the banks are sitting on reserves rather than lending out their money. Is the economy roaring back? Hardly! Maybe the eyes of the financial markets. Those guys read the tea leaves differently than the rank and file. I still see economic issues from my vantage point on the front lines of the housing market. Credit is still tight, property values are groping to level off and now rates are increasing. The job market is still lousy and the wave of layoffs continues to build.

As for the mortgage market, today’s Wall Street Journal suggests that low rates may be disappearing fast. The article goes on to suggest that the rise in interest could be ominous for the housing market at such a precarious time for our economy. The low rates and tax credits for first time home buyers has stimulated the housing market but higher rates could throw a wrench into the recovery. When rates go down signifcantly, refinancing your home could save hundreds of dollars a year. Will the lower rates come back? It’s hard to say. We saw some significant swing in bond yields last week. It could go down, just as fast as it went up so strap on your seat belts. It is likely that we will see rates settle down in the weeks to come, but it would be unlikely for them to reach the 4.75% we saw last week. Stay tuned and visit my site, www.livingintucson.com for timely commentaries on the mortgage market. Call David Wolsky at 520-977-3300 or email me at david@davidwolsky.com for all of your Tucson mortgage needs.

Mortgage bonds have seen steep sell-offs for the past four days which will impact the housing recovery and slow down the pace of refinances! We have had multiple rate increases since last week. The sell-off will put added pressure on an overloaded system to close loans before rate locks expire. As I write this update on May 27th (around 11:00 A.M.), mortgage bonds have dropped over 350 basis points since May 20th. The bonds are at the levels we saw in March when the Federal Reserve announced their strategy to purchase mortgage bonds and push rates lower which ignited a mortgage bond rally dropping bond yields. Let’s see if the Fed will try to calm the markets by purchasing more bonds and stopping the bleeding. Eventually, the bond market will find a floor of support and bounce back. Keep in mind, rates are still near historic lows and the conditions for buying a home are still excellent. I am only trying to point out the drastic selling of mortgage bonds within the last week.

Here’s an article from Bloomberg by Jody Sheen:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aw90LMfkBOeU&refer=home

If you are interested in buying or refinancing a home, contact David Wolsky (that’s me!) at 520-977-3300 for all your mortgage needs in Tucson, Arizona. I am licensed throughout the state.

The Arizona Daily Star published a good article last week by Adrian Sainz about mortgage rates that you can access by clicking here:

Puzzled by mortgage rates? Here’s Q & A help

According to the May 7th Freddie Mac survey the national average for 30 year fixed rate conventional mortgages is 4.84% with .7% in points. Wow!! Great rates!! Why is my quote higher or lower? Well…rates are not one size fits all. They are tiered based on your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) and your credit score. If you are purchasing a home and have a 10% down payment and a 680 FICO score, your rate will be slightly higher than a buyer with a 25% down payment with a 740 score. If you are refinancing your home and your LTV is over 70% and your score is under 740, you will likely be quoted a higher rate or higher points.

Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac have changed the rate or point structure significantly in the past eighteen months for borrowers with lower credit scores and higher LTV ratios. At the same time, credit guidelines have also tightened. Another recent change in mortgage rates is points! In the past fifteen years, lenders paid premiums or rebates to the originator in lieu of the borrower paying points to get a mortgage with low rates and fees. This year, the rebates are smaller and lenders are charging borrowers points. Here in Tucson at Sunstreet Mortgage, LLC, we have not seen as many zero point refinances or no cost refinances of conventional loans. One reason for this dynamic is because borrowers were refinancing the loans frequently and the lenders were not getting their money’s worth for the larger rebates. One positive aspect of the current rate and fee environment is the costs seem to pay for themselves within three years in most cases due to the historically low rates we are currently experiencing.

I would be happy to personally answer any mortgage related questions and concerns that you may have. I can be reached by calling me — David Wolsky – at 520-977-3300. I offer conventional, FHA and VA mortgages. I have fifteen years of experience originating mortgages. In fact, rates were double in 1994 than the current rates.

Useful websites:

Are you eligible to refinance or modify your loan?
www.makinghomeaffordable.gov
Does Fanne Mae or Freddie Mac own your loan?

www.fanniemae.com
www.freddiemac.com