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Which Way Will Mortgage Rates Go?

Thursday, March 11th, 2010

Rates have  been staying low since spring of 2009 thanks primarily to the intervention by the Federal Reserve. Rate predictions are as simple as weather predictions in my home town, Chicago. It does seem reasonable to suggest that rates will go up when the Feds wrap up their program of purchasing MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) on March 31st. If you would like a rate quote for your next mortgage, contact David Wolsky at 520-529-7515 or david@davidwolsky.com.

Here’s an excerpt of an article on March 11th from BankRate.com. Keep in mind that rate surveys are reflecting the rates of the previous week and there are ebbs and flows to the market causing rate fluctuations.

Rates Fall to Lowest Point of this Young Year

The Fed is in the final three weeks of a mortgage-buying initiative that began more than a year ago. In all, the Fed plans to buy $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities. The central bank is down to the last $30 billion or so of these purchases. Afterward, it will be up to investors to buy mortgages and keep home loans available. 

For a while, the consensus among bankers and economists was this: Mortgage rates would rise roughly half a percentage point after the Fed’s withdrawal. That consensus of an expectation of higher rates has transformed into uncertainty.

“Are we going to see a half-point blip? I don’t know. Maybe. Possibly. Probably. I don’t know,” says Dick Lepre, senior loan consultant for Residential Pacific Mortgage. If the Fed’s withdrawal means that rates are going to rise, why haven’t rates gone up already?

Even members of the Fed are asking that question, which implies that they are uncertain about the direction of mortgage rates, too. Brian Sack, executive vice president of the New York Fed, said in a speech Monday that the central bank has been tapering its purchases of mortgage-backed securities. “However, even as the pace of our purchases has slowed, longer-term interest rates have remained low,” Sack said, and the gap between mortgage rates and Treasury yields has remained narrow.

Click here to read the full article: http://www.bankrate.com/finance/mortgages/rates-fall-again-to-new-low.aspx

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New Underwriting Guidelines – Mortgage Humor!

Sunday, March 7th, 2010


New Underwriting Guidelines effective 3/01/2010

* All Borrowers’ Birth Certificate will be required with Pictures taken in the hospital with medical staff. Birth certificate with a live home delivery will not be eligible for first time home buyers.

* Marriage certificate with bridal dress will be required if both husband and wife are required to qualify for the loan

* GFE will not require signature but will require blood sampling from a recognized institution within three days of application

* DNA test will be performed at closing to avoid any ARM length transaction. Loan funding will be contingent upon satisfactory receipt of DNA results.

* Verification of deposit will be acceptable only if Bank representative is present at the closing.

* Copy of Pay stubs and W2 will only be acceptable through IRS only with a wax sealed envelope mailed directly to the lender.

* 7 Witnesses from neighborhood will be required as proof of primary residence in case Borrower owns more than 1 property.

* All appraisers will be required to use Mask and ear plugs at the time of inspection to avoid any personal influence by the Borrower for the appraised value.

* In order to correctly calculate DTI and true house running ratio a list of Grocery items, monthly usage and brand names will be required with receipts and projected 12 months consumption chart.

* Closing will not occur without loan officer presence at settlement and Loan officer picture will be taken at the closing in a Mug shot format with loan number. Picture should meet standard guideline of 2 X 2 inch in color format with one facing and one side view.

* Loan officer picture will be attached to the Deed and note and will be made available for general public and security agencies in case Borrower defaults on the loan.

Thanks to one of my colleagues for sending the funny email to a Realtor in my office. She has more empathy for loan officers after reading this. If you want to have some fun with the mortgage process, give me a call. I’m David Wolsky from Coldwell Banker Home Loans in Tucson, Arizona. You can reach me at (520) 529-7515 or david@davidwolsky.com. I have over 15 years of experience and we offer great rates and terms for conventional, FHA and VA loans including USDA and HomePath Financing.

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Walk Away From Mortgage When It Makes No Sense

Thursday, December 3rd, 2009

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Mortgage Industry Updates

Sunday, November 1st, 2009

Homebuyer’s tax credit update

There was some encouraging news on the extension of the $8000 tax credit for first time buyers. The Senate reached an agreement to extend the tax credit and added a $6500 tax credit for other primary home buyers. They also raised the qualifying income limits, in a meaningful way, increasing single taxpayer’s  income from $75,000 to $125,000 and joint taxpayer’s income from $150,000 to $250,000. Buyers must have an executed purchase agreement by April 30, 2010 and will have to close by June 30, 2010. More details are likely to come. Changes may occur in the reconciliation of the bill with the House and when voting takes place. The White House is strongly in favor of an extension of the tax credit especially for first time buyers.

 Appraisal Reforms My Be Terminated

According to Ken Harney of  The Washington Post in his recent column, the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC) could be on its way out. A bi-partisan amendment was approved October 22 by the House Financial Services Committee. The “Home Valuation Code of Conduct” would be terminated early in the existence of a proposed new Consumer Financial Protection Agency. The agency’s director would replace the code with a new procedure. The code was implemented last May as a firewall between lenders and appraisers to remove any collusion and inflated value. HVCC has created appraisal management companies which in some cases, collects fees from borrowers, pays appraisers reduced fees for their appraisals and pockets the difference. This practice has resulted in inferior quality appraisals. Some management companies hire inexperienced personal willing to work for lower fees and appraisers unfamiliar with the areas they are assigned to appraise. There have been many complaints since HVCC’s inception. In Michigan, The National Association of Home Builders contends the code is impeding new construction as well. More than half of the 500 builders who responded to a recent survey said at least one of their new homes was appraised at less than the cost of construction.  On the other hand, Freddie Mac stated on October 20th the quality of appraisals has improved.

Personally, I think the system could use some tweaking. I have recently received low value appraisals. It has been a difficult and arduous process to get the appraisers to reconsider the values. You would think a buyer and seller agreeing to a sales price would also influence home values! I am certain we can come up with a better system that will allow independence between appraisers, Realtors, borrowers and lenders.

PHH Corporation names Jerome Selitto CEO 

An issue close me, David Wolsky. My company, PHH Mortgage hires a new CEO. Veteran Industry Leader Brings to PHH Successful Track Record of Innovation, Transformation and Value Creation in Mortgage Business

 MT. LAUREL, N.J. – October 26, 2009 – The Board of Directors of PHH Corporation (NYSE: PHH) today announced that Jerome J. Selitto has been named President and Chief Executive Officer and appointed to the Board of Directors, effective immediately.  George Kilroy, who in June had stepped in on an interim basis as Acting President and CEO of PHH, will continue to lead the company’s fleet management business and serve as a member of the company’s Board of Directors.

 Mr. Selitto brings to PHH nearly forty years of experience in the mortgage industry and in capital markets, as well as a long and successful track record of building companies that have created value by transforming key sectors of the home lending market.  Mr. Selitto served most recently as a senior consultant and then member of the senior management team of mortgage industry software provider Ellie Mae and, before that, as Chief Executive Officer of DeepGreen Financial, the groundbreaking online home equity lender that he helped found.  Earlier, he launched and helped lead mortgage insurance company Amerin Guaranty Corporation (now Radian Guaranty) and held senior leadership positions at First Chicago Corporation, PaineWebber and Kidder, Peabody & Co.

 Jim Egan, Chairman of the PHH Corporation Board of Directors said, “Jerry Selitto is an innovative leader with a proven ability to drive change in an organization and execute transformational strategies that create value for its stakeholders.  Jerry was the architect of two companies in the mortgage industry that created distinctive competitive advantages, found innovative and cost-efficient ways to serve their customers and created new opportunities to generate revenue.  We are confident that his strategic vision, leadership ability and experience re-designing corporate processes will drive increased value across our mortgage and fleet management businesses and help take PHH to a new level of success.”

 Mr. Selitto said, “I am thrilled to have the opportunity to join PHH.  This is a great company with valuable assets, talented employees, world-class clients, and significant opportunities for growth.  PHH’s mortgage and fleet management businesses are well-positioned in the marketplace, and I look forward to working closely with my colleagues across the company to create new opportunities and significant value for our shareholders, customers and employees.”

Economic Update For The Week of November 2nd 

This is a big week for economic information. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets on Tuesday and their monetary policy statement is released on Wednesday. On Friday, we have the jobs report which is an important report especially with unemployment hovering around 10%. Some good news in our industry, the house and senate voted on Friday for a one year extension of higher loan limits for FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The limit in Pima County is $316,250 for FHA and $417,00 for Fannie and Freddie.  Expect a vote this week for an extension of the $8000 tax credit which should stimulate housing for the first quarter of 2010. Pending home sales were up 6.1% in October. It’s the eight straight month with an increase thanks in large part to the $8000 tax credit. It is a great time to be a home buyer!

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Effective January 1st, FHA implements changes to minimize losses

Saturday, September 26th, 2009

 

FHA Logo

FHA Logo

Special thanks to Inman News and Matt Carter for the following information:

Beginning in January, The Federal Housing Administration will tighten the credit guidelines and make rule changes the appraisal process to minimize defaults.. FHA’s insurance fund is sufficient to cover future losses, Federal Housing Commissioner David H. Stevens said, but the tighter policies will ensure that the loan guarantees remain self-sustaining and continue to be funded by premiums paid by borrowers, not taxpayers. The rule changes for appraisals will be similar to the changes implemented by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac this past May, known as the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC). There has been some push back to HVCC by industry groups, but I suspect that it is here to stay.

Other FHA changes include new requirements for streamlined refinancing such as income verification and demonstrating a tangible benefit  to the borrowers.

There will bill tighter restrictions for FHA approved lenders that will require us to submit audited annual financial statements. Another rule change transfers the risk of loans originated by mortgage brokers to lenders who fund the loans. This practice is already in place for Fannie and Freddie. Brokers won’t have to be individually approved to originate FHA loans which will potentially increase the number of lenders eligible to provide FHA loans resulting in more effective oversight per The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).

HUD also proposes to increase the net-worth requirement for approved mortgagees from $250,000 to $1 million — a move that could exclude many smaller companies from FHA lending. The requirement has not been increased since 1993 and is currently below industry standards, HUD said. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) issued a statement saying it has long advocated a higher net-worth requirement for FHA lenders, but noted that it “is just as important that any new requirements be reasonable and not unduly hamper competition.” MBA has proposed a $500,000 net-worth requirements.

I have 15 years of FHA lending experience. My company, PHH Mortgage is the fourth largest lender in the country and we specialize in government loans. Call David Wolsky at 520-275-2536. We are licensed in all 50 states. Email me at david@davidwolsky.com for all your mortgage needs.

 

 

 

 

 

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Blog Entry For August 24th From The Front Lines

Monday, August 24th, 2009

 I like to share my thoughts on the mortgage industry as an insider on the from lines. It’s been a month since my last blog entry and that is too long!!

 As you may already know, the $8000 tax credit for first time home buyers (defined as an individual who has not owned a home for the past three years), expires on November 30th. Will it be extended? Let’s hope so! The tax credit has really helped sell some homes! There is speculation of expanding the program to include buyers who are not first time homeowners. Of course, Congress has a lot on their plate with health insurance reform as well as climate change legislation. In my view, extending the credit is crucial to our economy, especially in Arizona, Florida, California, Nevada and Michigan. The National Association of Realtors and the National Association of Home Builders are doing some intensive lobbying of Congress. Hopefully, they can get a few words in edgewise between all of the health care and energy lobbyists.

 

I have also heard first hand that banks are making a concerted effort to renegotiate mortgages and facilitate short sales. You know why? It’s because the government is putting a lot of pressure on the banks. They have received billions of dollars and have helped only a small percentage of homeowners so far. Even if you were already turned down, you may hear from your lender again. In some cases, homeowners were experiencing hardships like reduced hours of work when they attempted to redo their mortgages and were still declined. Many of these at risk borrowers have lost their jobs, but are still trying to hang on to their houses! If you or anyone you know fits into this situation, don’t despair and good luck!

 

There have been a few regulations implemented in the past month. The biggest change involves the Truth-In-Lending (TIL) disclosure. Mortgage originators have always had to deliver a TIL within three days of application (Sundays and bank holidays are not included). The new changes include an additional seven day period to coordinate the loan disclosures. Another change is if the final rate for the loan is one eighth (.125%) higher than the original TIL, a new TIL needs to be sent over to the borrower within three days before the closing. The minimum time to close a mortgage is ten days or thirteen days if the final rate is higher than the original disclosures. In case you are wondering why a rate might be higher for the final mortgage than the initial rate, there are a few scenarios which can affect interest rates. For example, if a borrower “floats” the interest rate and the market worsens, the final “locked” rate would be higher. Also, a rate could change if the credit score changes or the loan-to-value ratio changes.

 

Another change is FNMA (Fannie Mae) underwriting is the verification of a self employed borrower. Thirty days prior to the dates on the loan closing documents, third party employment verification must be done. Approved verifications include a CPA letter, a Yellow Pages ad or a website.

 

As always, if you need any direct advice for mortgages, please contact me, David Wolsky at Mortgage Services by calling 520-529-7515. The email address is david@davidwolsky.com.

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New Mortage Disclosure Rules Are On The Way

Monday, July 20th, 2009

The Mortgage Disclosure Improvement Act goes into effect on July 30th. The rules are designed to help borrowers to better understand the rates and fees they are paying when obtaining their mortgages. A lender cannot charge upfront fees other than a reasonable fee for a credit report until you have received a truth-in-lending (TIL) disclosure and the annualized percentage rate (APR). The TIL has to be provided to the borrower within three business days of application and as of July 30th, there has to be a waiting period of seven business days after the applicant has received their documents or they are mailed. This new changes gives the borrowers more time to review their loan and it will eliminate quick transactions. Additionally, if the APR is one eight (.125%) higher in rate than the initial APR on the application, a new TIL must be disclosed at least three business days prior to closing. For example, if you applied for a loan at 5.375% and decided to float the interest rate to play the market and then locked in a rate of 5.5% or higher, a new TIL must be provided. Rates are often due to changes in credit scores, loan-to-value ratios or adding or deleting borrowers in the transaction.

One more rule to remember, a borrower must receive a copy of their appraisal three days before closing or waive the requirement if they do not think it is necessary.

PHH Home Loans and Coldwell Banker Home Loans is an industry leader and a lender you can trust. We are committed to regulatory compliance and ethical lending standards -  and to managing these changes while providing you with excellent service.

For further information, call me, David Wolsky at 520-977-330 or please email me at david@davidwolsky.com.

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Coldwell Banker and PHH: A New Begining For David Wolsky

Sunday, June 28th, 2009

cb_home_loans_logo1

I have joined Coldwell Banker Home Loans as a Mortgage Advisor last week! We are also known as PHH Home Loans. After completing a week of training at our Mt. Laurel, New Jersey headquarters, I was incredibly impressed by the depth of my training. It was great meeting the people who will be integral to my team, committed to always giving my clients the ultimate value in a timely fashion. Our mission statement is to treat customers like family.

Who are we?? Well, we are the fourth largest mortgage lender in the country! We are publicly traded under the ticker symbol of PHH. We are the largest “private label” mortgage company in the United States. We are the mortgage affiliate for Coldwell Banker, ERA and Century 21 real estate companies as well as the mortgage company for Merrill Lynch and Charles Schwab brokerage houses. Coldwell Banker Home Loans (PHH Home Loans) is a very stable company, thanks to a conservative and sensible approach to mortgage financing. For example, we did not offer sub-prime loans or option ARMs which helped to fuel the current financial woes. We are the only Top Ten mortgage company that is not associated with a traditional bank. I am excited about this opportunity to work with Coldwell Banker as well as the added value I can offer to my loyal clients who have worked with me and referred business to me over this past 15 years of my career as a mortgage consultant.

You can reach me, David Wolsky by calling 520.977.3300 or emailing david@davidwolsky.com. We are licensed in all 50 states.

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What is behind the fast rise of interest rates?

Monday, June 8th, 2009

 Monday, June 8, 2009 was another brutal day for the bond market. Bonds have been selling and yields have been climbing since May 21st. We have seen 30 year fixed rate mortgages go up about .75% in rate from 4.75% to 5.5%! There are many reasons, opinions and theories explaining the sudden rise in mortgage rates. Here is some “expert” analysis:

According to Robert Lenzner for Forbes, The bear market ended March 9th and the end of the worst recession since the 1930s or the mid 1970s is plainly in sight. The yield curve – the difference between short-term and long-term securities – usually widens in advance of an economic recovery, and it has done so. Housing, the genesis of the crisis, is showing signs of improvement and even amelioration. Pending sales were up 6.7% in April, even if prices are still in the tank.

“There are two legs to that story, both of them bad. As yields on the 10-year go higher, the more attractive that investment would be to equity investors, so there is an asset allocation argument to be made,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co. “And, the Fed would like to keep yields lower, or at a favorable rate to help the recovery,” said Hogan.

“Rising interest rates will probably begin putting modest valuation pressure on the equity market as the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moves above 4%,” wrote Fred Dickson, chief market strategist, Davidson Companies, in a research note.

“Mortgage rates are heading higher as measured by Bankrate’s 30 year mortgage which rose to 5.45%. Rates are up 45 basis points in the last two weeks as Treasury rates have spiked higher. The recent rise in mortgage rates will probably dampen home sales and will certainly threaten stability in the consumer and household sector,” said Dan Greenhaus, an analyst at Miller Tabak Equity Strategy Group.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, on June 3rd, “In recent weeks, yields on longer-term Treasury securities and fixed-rate mortgages have risen,” he told Congress. “These increases appear to reflect concerns about large federal deficits but also other causes, including greater optimism about the economic outlook, a reversal of flight-to-quality flows, and technical factors related to the hedging of mortgage holdings.” 

 Here is this week’s forecast from the Mortgage Success Systems, LLC:

 “Bonds have traded lower recently, causing home loan rates to move higher. The reasons are many, but certainly due in part to all the extra Bond supply in the market. The Treasury has to have some way to pay for all the massive government stimulus plans, so Treasury auctions have been increasing dramatically – but the added supply is driving prices lower, with home loan rates moving higher. I will be watching closely to see if this trend continues.”

My observations… The bond market is way oversold and we should see a reversal soon as all of the impact from mortgage refinancing works its way through the system. There is a tremendous supply which is not keeping up with demand. Once all of the excess paper from the refinance boom is bought, the appetite for more supply will be there and yields will lower although more prognostications do not have rates as low as we have seen in recent months. Higher mortgage rates have had their impact on new mortgage applications. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, refinance applications have dropped 24.1% to its lowest level since February 6. Purchase applications rose 4.3%. It appears that buyers are sensing prices leveling off and rates starting to climb. First time buyers want to take advantage of the $8000 tax credit before it runs out on November 30. The economy is showing signs of improvement. The stock market is up 37% since March! If you are interested in applying for a mortgage, call me, David Wolsky at 520-977-3300 during regular business hours. I have been origination mortgage since 1994 in Tucson, AZ.

 

For more infomation on the subject of T-Bills, read The Bond War – Why Paul Krugman and Niall Ferguson are hammering each other about T-Bill interest rates written by Daniel Gross and posted on www.slate.com. Article URL: http://www.slate.com/id/2219769/

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Low Mortgage Rates: Now or Never?!

Monday, June 1st, 2009

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Bonds took another beating today as investors shunned safe haven instruments in exchange for riskier investments. Mortgage Bonds did trade briefly higher at the open but fell off a cliff after news from China that manufacturing in that country was at a 3 month high signaling that the global recession may be coming to an end.

In the past week we have seen the average mortgage rate jump a half point higher! 5.25% is certainly a great low rate, but 4.75% was available only a few days ago. Bond yields are surging because the economy is showing signs of improvement such as the June 1st report showing manufacturing shrank as at a slower pace and construction spending rose. Let’s hold off on the champagne for now because manufacturing shrank, but not as much as expected. Another reason that bond traders are getting jittery is because of the fear of inflation. Bonds have fixed rates and their value erodes with inflation. Conversely to stocks, bond yields increase whenever bonds are sold and yields lower when bought. According to Nobel Prize winning economist, Paul Krugman in his May 28th column The Big Inflation Scare, the threat of inflation is unfounded in the current economic environment. Krugman points out the lack of inflation right now. Prices are down from a year ago and deflation has more potential than inflation (as I write this blog on June 1st, 2009). Krugman also indicates that even though the Fed is printing money and buying debt, there still isn’t a precedent for inflation as banks have been repaying the Fed. Plus the banks are sitting on reserves rather than lending out their money. Is the economy roaring back? Hardly! Maybe the eyes of the financial markets. Those guys read the tea leaves differently than the rank and file. I still see economic issues from my vantage point on the front lines of the housing market. Credit is still tight, property values are groping to level off and now rates are increasing. The job market is still lousy and the wave of layoffs continues to build.

As for the mortgage market, today’s Wall Street Journal suggests that low rates may be disappearing fast. The article goes on to suggest that the rise in interest could be ominous for the housing market at such a precarious time for our economy. The low rates and tax credits for first time home buyers has stimulated the housing market but higher rates could throw a wrench into the recovery. When rates go down signifcantly, refinancing your home could save hundreds of dollars a year. Will the lower rates come back? It’s hard to say. We saw some significant swing in bond yields last week. It could go down, just as fast as it went up so strap on your seat belts. It is likely that we will see rates settle down in the weeks to come, but it would be unlikely for them to reach the 4.75% we saw last week. Stay tuned and visit my site, www.livingintucson.com for timely commentaries on the mortgage market. Call David Wolsky at 520-977-3300 or email me at david@davidwolsky.com for all of your Tucson mortgage needs.

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